| Title | X-Stock | ACB VND27,100 +18.9%: Valuation Has Been Priced In |
|---|---|
| Report Type | Phân tích công ty |
| Source | BSC |
| Bussiness | ACB |
| Detail |
Date : 21/05/2026 Total pages : 0 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 417 Kb Download: 0 Download |
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| Short Content |
INVESTMENT VIEW
Key factors to monitor: (1) the draft amendment to Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN; and (2) the ownership structure of major shareholder groups. Q1/2026 EARNINGS OVERVIEW AND COMPARISON WITH BSC’S LATEST REPORT ACB announced Q1/2026 profit before tax of VND5,368bn (+16.8% YoY, +55% QoQ), completing 24% of its full-year business plan, supported by: (1) total operating income increasing by 13% YoY and completing 23.7% of our forecast, led by positive NFI growth of 23.1% YoY, completing 29.1% of our forecast, thanks to positive contributions from FX fees and fees from the investment ecosystem, while NII increased by 9.9% amid competitive pressure and fulfilled 22.5% of our forecast; (2) optimized operating expenses, with CIR at 32% compared with 34% in Q1/2025; and (3) well-controlled asset quality and the completion of provisioning under Decree 86 in Q4/2025. Based on Q1/2026 earnings, with NPAT completing 23.8% of BSC’s 2026 estimate, and ACB’s strategic direction, BSC lowers its NPAT forecast by 1% versus the latest update and makes several adjustments, including: (1) raising our TOI forecast by 0.6%, supported by a higher NFI contribution, increasing from 17% to around 21% of TOI, which offsets the slight decline in NII due to pressure from narrowing NIM; and (2) revising CIR to 34.5%, up 1.5 ppts versus our previous forecast, reflecting higher estimated strategic investment expenses. However, we maintain our target price versus the latest report due to a change in the reference timeframe. |