| Title | X-Alpha | DPM VND35,000 +19%: Earnings Inflection from a Global Supply Shock |
|---|---|
| Report Type | Phân tích công ty |
| Source | BSC |
| Bussiness | DPM |
| Detail |
Date : 02/04/2026 Total pages : 0 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 633 Kb Download: 0 Download |
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| Short Content |
VALUATION VIEW BSC upgrades its recommendation on DPM to BUY, with a target price of VND35,000/share. The target price is derived using the EV/EBITDA method, with a 2026F target multiple of 5.7x, equivalent to the 10-year median for 2016–2025. The new target price implies an expected total return of 19% and is 25% higher than our previous report, driven by a 61% upward revision to 2026F NPAT-MI after we significantly raised our average selling price assumptions. EARNINGS FORECAST
COMPANY UPDATE Business Results Update 4Q2025 results: Net revenue reached VND4,528bn, up 7% YoY and 52% QoQ, while NPAT-MI reached VND390bn, up 38% YoY and 19% QoQ. DPM’s 4Q2025 results were in line with BSC’s forecast, with: (i) actual gross margin performing better than expected, offsetting (ii) elevated G&A expenses, mainly from management personnel costs and welfare fund provisions. VNPOLY Update: The obligation has been identified and incorporated into our forecast. Investment Thesis Update: Please refer to our latest report for further details.
RISKS (1) Sales volume and average selling prices come in lower than expected; regulatory intervention pressure; (2) Higher input gas prices due to FX volatility and rising oil prices; (3) Upside risk to our forecast: geopolitical conflicts become more prolonged and/or more severe. |