| Title | X-Stock | IDC 47,800 +14.8%: Awaiting clearer signs of recovery |
|---|---|
| Report Type | Phân tích công ty |
| Source | BSC |
| Bussiness | IDC |
| Detail |
Date : 11/06/2026 Total pages : 0 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 434 Kb Download: 0 Download |
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| Short Content |
INVESTMENT THESIS BSC initiates a WATCH recommendation on IDC with a target price of VND 47,800/share, implying an upside of 14.8% versus the price on June 11, 2026, based on the following views: 1. 2026 earnings are forecast to remain broadly flat YoY due to: (1) industrial park land handovers being expected to improve only slightly, supported by contracts signed earlier in 2025, while FDI investment demand in southern provinces remains slow; (2) the power segment being forecast to grow modestly by 6.5% YoY, as the El Nino effect is expected to strengthen in 2H2026; and (3) 2026 not being the key handover period for IDC’s real estate projects. 2. However, we also note that IDC has currently corrected by 17% from its peak and returned to a P/B of 2.0x, equivalent to -1 standard deviation from its five-year average of 2.8x. Therefore, we will consider revising our recommendation if land handovers or memorandum of understanding signings exceed expectations. EARNINGS UPDATE Q1/2026 results: Net revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,486 billion (-17% YoY) and VND 271 billion (-21% YoY), respectively. The YoY decline in earnings was mainly due to:
Other notable points: Gross margin of the industrial park segment increased by 8 ppts YoY. BSC believes this was driven by the recognition of Huu Thanh Industrial Park, which has a lower investment cost and higher land rental prices compared with Cau Nghin Industrial Park in the same period of 2025. |