| Title | X-Alpha | DPG 55,300 +43.3%: Real estate drives growth in 2025-2026 |
|---|---|
| Report Type | Phân tích công ty |
| Source | BSC |
| Industry | Industrials |
| Bussiness | DPG |
| Detail |
Date : 30/12/2026 Total pages : 0 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 561 Kb Download: 0 Download |
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| Short Content |
VALUATION PERSPECTIVE Since the release of the latest Report, DPG’s share price has gained 36.4%, broadly in line with the VN-Index and outperforming the sector average. We attribute this re-rating to stronger-than-expected execution across the company’s core businesses, in line with our investment thesis, including: (1) meaningful legal progress and accelerated project development at Casamia Balanca, (2) a strong recovery in hydropower earnings from a low base, and (3) the construction segment entering a more favorable earnings recognition phase. BSC maintains BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 55,300/share (upside +43.4%), a +29% increase compared to the old target price (adjusted due to stock dividends), driven by the real estate segment, specifically (1) adjusting the selling price at Casamia Balanca from 45 million/m2 to 55 million/m2 at actual price, (2) adding new projects to the valuation of Phu Hai Urban Area (RNAV method) and Binh Duong Resort Complex (book value), and (3) adding the ultra-white glass segment to the valuation (discounted cash flow method). BUSINESS RESULTS PROJECTION Compared to previous projections, the company's Q3 2025 business results show similarities in the hydropower segment, while the value of new contracts won in the construction segment is better than expected and the Casamia Balanca project is being implemented early, making it eligible for handover in 2025. Therefore, BSC adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2026 upwards as follows: In 2025: Net revenue = VND 5,301 billion (+48% YoY) and Profit after tax - NCI = VND 345 billion (+54% YoY), increasing by +29% and +42% respectively compared to the previous forecast, reflecting the expectation that 25 out of 50 products sold in the first phase at Casamia Balanca will be handed over. In 2026: Net revenue = VND 7,456 billion (+41% YoY) and Profit after tax - NCI = VND 487 billion (+41% YoY). Profit growth was driven by the handover of low-rise products at Casamia Balanca, while other segments remained relatively stable We expect the glass segment to begin commercial operation from 2H2026, but its contribution to business results will be limited in 2026-2027. PRIVATE PLACEMENT PLAN On October 28, 2025, DPG’s General Meeting of Shareholders approved the 2025 private placement plan. Accordingly, the company plans to issue 17.8 million shares, equivalent to 17.6% of outstanding shares, at a minimum offering price of VND 30,300/share, to raise more than VND 540bn. The proceeds will be mainly used to invest in the Binh Duong Resort Complex and construction equipment. RISKS: 1. Tariff and geopolitical risks affecting glass segment. 2. Profit margin in the construction segment is lower than expected due to the highly competitive environment. |